Waters Economics has submitted our response to the public engagement process for Hong Kong 2030+. We commend the government for sharing the strategy with the public and requesting views.
Whilst we have considerable reservations about the analysis undertaken, the strategy direction itself, and concerns about its implementation, it is none-the-less a step in the right direction to engage the public and importantly, private businesses. After all, business drives the economy, contributes tax revenue and a strategy suitable for business growth and development is a prerequisite to achieving other sustainable development objectives.
Our submission presented four key themes for consideration:
1. Identifying Future Opportunities and Threats
Addressing the challenges of an ageing population, taking advantage of the opportunities presented by the urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta and global trends.
2. Appreciation of the Spatial Economy
Hong Kong’s most significant comparative advantage is its dense inner core. Ignoring this and allocating growth in isolated segments across Hong Kong is not a practical option for the continued growth of the city. In creating new employment nodes it is vital to conduct an analysis of the location requirements of different economic sectors. The target number of jobs to residents for the two Strategic Growth Areas (NTN and ELM) is more than 3 times the average of NT districts and higher than all non-CBD districts. These targets are not practical or achievable without strong incentive mechanisms.
3. Alternative Scenarios
We believe it is important to consider alternatives and to explain to the public why the chosen option is preferred. We cannot see any economic justification for the ELM and suggest that the government consider alternative scenarios that better match economic, sustainability, and livability criteria. There are opportunities for further densification in the metro area. There are also opportunities in the NT to create a cluster of jobs & economic activity with a large enough critical mass, that is supported by good transport infrastructure to attract businesses and people.
4. Implementation Strategy
We suggest the government consider carefully alternative approaches to bringing land forward for development. Land held in private sector land banks is approximated at 900ha, whilst the economic and social uses land requirement in HK2030+ is 500ha. We see enormous potential in engaging with the private sector and bringing forward land held in private sector land banks for development.
Our recommendations for the conceptual spatial framework presented in Hong Kong 2030+
If you would like to receive a copy of our submission please get in touch with us. enquire@waterseconomics.com